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The real cost of incorrect wind forecasts
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TOPIC: The real cost of incorrect wind forecasts

The real cost of incorrect wind forecasts 3 years, 11 months ago #16959

  • Chuckster
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I know wind forecasts are generally for the "most extreme" weather forecasted, but we kitesurfers still have to use this information in deciding where and when to go in search of wind.
Lets face it - we've all looked at future forecasts and planned trips, and then gone on those trips, only to find no wind. How much money are we spending on this often misguided information??
This weekend alone i made a 180km round trip in search of wind (30+knot NE forecasted - although i would have been happy for 15!) When i got to the location, 5 - 8 knots (Mangawhai) Turned around went home.

Im interested to see just how much kiters end up wasting fuel on these trips for wind. For me, this weekend, 180km at 10l/100km = 18l @ $2.109 = $37.96.

I know of at least two other cars that did the same trip on the same day with the same results. thats $113.89 (assuming they did the same consumption of fuel - which i doubt coz they were both 4wd's vs my very small 2wd) $113.89 spent, and no kiting.

So thats my story. put yours down too. lets see how much it adds to in the next few months. ...maybe send the Metservice an invoice in a few months???haha

Re: The real cost of incorrect wind forecasts 3 years, 11 months ago #16960

  • alexander
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My experience over the last couple of years with forecasts on Metservice esp. if they forcast easterlies....they hardly ever happen.
Try windguru and you'll find they are far more accurate, but this weekend was quiet suspicious with only one day (Monday) peaking on windguru, so chances are always really slim with this sort of forecast.
For easterlies around AKL: Unless all forecasts Metservice, Windguru, wind.co.nz etc. look very similar for at least two days...don't trust it and plan a trip on it.
That's my story...

www.gaastra.co.nz

Re: The real cost of incorrect wind forecasts 3 years, 11 months ago #16961

Hi,that is quite expensive...

Average rider has at least two good kites 2x2000=4000
kiteboard 1x1200=1200
harness 1x 250= 250
wetsuit 1x 300= 300
-----------------
total $ 5750

$ 5750 : 365 = $ 15.75 a day
We had no wind at Tauranga for one month = $ 475.50 +bad forecast , isn't that crazy!?

Re: The real cost of incorrect wind forecasts 3 years, 11 months ago #16962

  • auntie earl
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Haha funny stuff... I slept all day, bike to the beach at dusk and kited half the night... wicked.. no gas no crowds!

Re: The real cost of incorrect wind forecasts 3 years, 11 months ago #16963

ahhhh so you wanna predict the future?????
but are you sure? what about the fun side of the island?

Re: The real cost of incorrect wind forecasts 3 years, 11 months ago #16964

  • spoonhead
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Hey there haha talking of wind, im up in aucks (from chch) till thursday then hiring a van on thursday to travel northland for a week and hopefully get heaps of kiting in. so if any one wants to convoy, or send me weather reports i would LOVE THAT 027 five 99 five 6 77.

Yaaah and if there is no wind hopefully the swell cranks on some points up north

Happy riding!

Re: The real cost of incorrect wind forecasts 3 years, 11 months ago #16965

  • Chuckster
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yeah windguru is my pref...but it had sunday as pretty good! and still nothing. windguru, bouyweather and metview. previous weekend was the same for quite a few - no wind(although it came up after half of them left ) and the weekend before that - the NW never arrived (for most).
Do the wind forecasters have shares in petrol stations ??

Spoonhead, windguru has Weds starting to crank...get amped.

Re: The real cost of incorrect wind forecasts 3 years, 11 months ago #16966

  • SimonP
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The cynic in me thinks that MetService has been over-predicting the severity of sub-tropical lows ever since a certain canyoning incident. I trust windfinder and MetVuW way more, they were bang on last weekend.

The other thing is that because these lows are quite small the effects are pretty localised. It was 25 knots on Monday in the Bay of Plenty but not further north. Normally it's the other way around.

Simon

Re: The real cost of incorrect wind forecasts 3 years, 10 months ago #17078

  • air-time
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I learned a long time ago (while hang gliding) that the ONLY way to enjoy windsports is to do it so close to home you can go whenever... I own my own business near the beach and estuary in Chch... When the wind blows, I go!
Greg Morehouse

It's better to want what you have,
than have what you want.
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